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Predicting Ranking Trajectories of EPL Derby Teams
Abstract
Introduction
Research on forecasting league rankings during critical stages of the season, particularly in derby contexts, remains limited.
Methods
This study forecasts league rankings for English Premier League derby teams at mid-season (Round 19) and end-of-season (Round 38) using the NeuralProphet time-series forecasting model and historical ranking data from the 1992–1993 to 2024–2025 seasons.
Results
The results indicate that Liverpool is predicted to finish first in both Round 19 and Round 38, while Manchester City and Arsenal are expected to rank third at both stages. Manchester United is forecasted to show a slight improvement from mid-season to the end of the season, whereas Tottenham Hotspur is predicted to experience a modest decline. Everton is projected to remain near the relegation zone throughout the season.
Discussion
These findings suggest that time-series–based league ranking forecasts can provide valuable practical insights for squad management, tactical planning, and mid- to long-term strategic decision-making.
Conclusion
The study also highlights the potential benefits of advancing ranking prediction research through multivariate time-series methods and staged forecasting frameworks.
